Water problems in Aral Sea basin

The Amu Darya provides water for irrigation, but this heavy water utilization on the Amu Darya hinders the replenishing of the Aral sea. The Karakum Canal that is 800 km long, carries water from the Amu Darya near Kelif across Turkmenistan to Ashgabat. The area beyond the Amu Darya and The Syr Darya is called as Maworaunnahr (meaning “beyond the river”) in Arabic.

Most of Uzbekistan lies between the these two largest rivers in Central Asia, the Amu Darya and Syr Darya. These two roughly parallel rivers both have their headwaters in the mountains east of Uzbekistan, and follow north-westerly courses toward the Aral Sea, a saltwater lake on the border between Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan. Since the early 1960s, the Aral Sea has lost half its former size, and the lake has been separated into two main lakes.

In the Soviet era these water resources harnessed with an extensive system of dams and irrigation canals to support the rapidly growing populations of the downstream countries and especially for agricultural production that supported the Soviet Union. The dams also produce electricity, but the demand for electricity is in winter months, when water needs to be stored for irrigation in summer. During Soviet era downstream countries supplied the upstream countries with gas and coal in the winter to allow them to generate power without releasing water. Especially during the period from 1960 until 1992 the surface area of the sea was halved and its volume quartered, because of the Amu-Darya and Syr-Darya rivers were channelled and dammed to provide irrigation for agriculture.

After the collapse of the Soviet Union the elaborate set of water and energy sharing agreements among the Soviet republics of Central Asia largely broke down and the previously integrated regional water and electricity infrastructure became fragmented and suffered from lack of maintenance. With overuse and poor water management, agricultural yields declined, and the water levels of the Aral Sea dropped rapidly. As a result the provinces around the Aral Sea, in particular the Karakalpakstan region of Uzbekistan, suffered great hardships and increases in poverty. An estimated one third of the population uses drinking water that does not meet quality standards and the problem is acute in Bukhara, Navoi, Khorezm and Karakalpakstan regions.

The situation in Karakalpakstan and Khorezm areas has declined further as a result of two consecutive years of drought. The drought has so far affected 2.5 million people, resulting in 2 years of crop failure in 2000 and 2001 that has deteriorated the local economy which is dependent heavily on agriculture.

By the water problems erupted, relations among the former Soviet Republics have been strained, especially between Tajikistan and Kyrgyz Republic on the one side and Uzbekistan on the other. Tajikistan, the poorest of the former Soviet republics of Central Asia, has move ahead unilaterally in the construction of a project which will allow it to become a net exporter of electricity. The Rogun Dam, which was first planned as a gigantic Soviet hydro-electric power project, stalled when a civil war erupted in Tajikistan in the early 1990s after the breakup of the Soviet Union. Uzbekistan has cut natural gas exports to Tajikistan because of the tension between two states. It is also known that, the two countries have long been at loggerheads over a number of issues from energy supplies to cultural strains.

Rogun Dam planned in a narrow gorge between steep mountain flanks, the dam when completed will generate 3,600 megawatts of power. This will be enough to supply much of Tajikistan’s electricity needs and allow exports to Tajikistan’s neighbours, including to Afghanistan and Pakistan. While a preliminary dam built in Soviet days was collapsed by floods in 1993, there remains a network of huge tunnels carved inside the mountains on both sides of the river. While the completion of the dam is still expensive at a planned cost of $ 2.2 billion, the fact that a significant, part of the work has already been carried out strengthens the economic justification for pushing forward with the project. Rogun dam is the largest of the dams currently on the drawing board in Central Asia, but others are under consideration, among them the Kambarata 1 and 2 dams in neighbouring Kyrgyzstan with a joint capacity of 2,260 MW and an estimated cost of $2 billion. According to the Eurasian Development Bank, total capacity of currently planned hydro investments in Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan is 11, 360 MW at a total estimated cost of $10.2 billion.

The dams can be used to regulate river flows to prevent downstream flooding during high run-off seasons and store water for release during the summer months when it is needed for irrigation. However, since energy is needed especially in the cold winters in Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, the recent practice has been the reverse: a higher release of water in the winter, with resulting flooding downstream, and in the summer less water release than needed for downstream irrigation. Construction of new storage capacity in the longer term and an effective water resources management can help reduce the tension between seasonal uses of water and also can help reduce the risks of water and energy crises. In order to refrain from this position building dams and reservoirs along the same river or river system in sequence is needed. This allows the release of water from the higher reservoir for electricity generation in winter, but storing the water in the subsequent reservoir in summer for irrigation needs. In the case of Rogun dam the downstream reservoir of Nurek dam could serve this purpose; for Kamabarata dam the downstream reservoir of Toktogul dam is available. This suggestion seems most feasible for the Central Asian region, but it requires a level of trust among countries.

Aside from the human hardship and the economic losses caused by the lack of water in summer and by lack of electricity in the winter, the looming crisis has the potential to result in cross-border conflicts at the community and state level. In 2008 Reuters reported that annual negotiations over water sharing agreements between Kazakhstan, Kyrgyz Republic, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan had broken down over Uzbekistan’s refusal to accept a Kyrgyz offer of a water discharge of 1.2 billion cubic meters for downstream use. What appears to be clear is that no systematic assessment of the extent and potential impact of a potential regional water shortage, for Central Asia as a whole, have been carried out as yet and that no regional emergency response is under preparation.

In sum, by all readily available indicators a serious regional water and energy crisis in Central Asia appears to be looming for the next years. Regional governments and the international community need to react quickly to forestall major economic, humanitarian and political consequences.

SOME SUGGESTIONS ON WATER ISSUES IN ARAL SEA BASIN

1. The data about actual water supply in Amu Darya vary. In order to reach a solution, data of water supply must be clearly put by all basin countries.

2. An expert assessment, accepted by all interested parties, of the Central Asian water and energy shortage and its impacts is needed immediately.

3. Depending on the outcomes of such an assessment, governments of the Central Asian countries need to plan emergency responses, like in the drought of 2000-2001, but at higher and more sustained levels.

4. The long-term prospects of water and energy balances in the region need to be assessed in the light of changing climatic conditions, not only in terms the existing swings of weather cycles, but also in terms of the likely impact of long-term global warming on the water and energy resources of Central Asia.

5. River basin countries should discuss the water problem by using other issues among them. This negotiation strategy may open benefical solutions on the water issue. Downstream countries can give guarantee on energy issues especially for winter seasons to upstream countries, Kyrgyz Republic and Tajikistan, in order to feel themselves safe and downstream countries can use upstream dams as a regular flow source of water.

6. Basin countries should refrain from third party involvement on the water issue which can impose their political agenda to the basin countries.

Dr. Seyfi K?l?ç, ORSAM Water Research Programme Specialist

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